Home → Techniques and Tips → @RISK 6.x/7.x with Projects → @RISK with Projects in Progress
Applies to:
@RISK 6.x/7.x, Professional and Industrial Editions
@RISK for Project 4.x
I used @RISK to set up my project initially, but now the project has started. Some tasks are complete, some are partly complete, and some have not yet started. How can I best use @RISK with a project in progress?
There are several approaches to choose from:
(Requires @RISK 6.0 or newer)
In the @RISK » Project » Project Settings dialog, set Date Range for Simulation to either Activities after Current Project Date or Activities after Project Status Date. There is no need to remove distributions from tasks that are complete or edit distributions in tasks that are partly complete. Then, in a simulation @RISK will not vary any tasks that are complete, and it will pro rate the variation in tasks that are partly complete. (The Current Date and Status Date can be set in Microsoft Project 2010–2016 by clicking the Project Information icon on the Project tab.)
You can illustrate this with one of our examples. In @RISK, click Help » Example Spreadsheets » Project » Probabilistic Branching. After @RISK opens the MPP file, click into MS Project and set the project status date to some date in the middle of task 4. Then, in @RISK » Project » Settings set Date Range to Project Status Date. Run a simulation, and then Browse Results in the durations. You'll see that the durations of tasks 2 and 3 don't change because they were complete before your project status date; the variability of task 4 is now less (pro rated, as the documentation says), and tasks 5 to 8 (which start after the status date) still vary according to the original distributions.
A simple and practical approach is to apply distributions to the Remaining Duration field rather than Duration. That way, if an activity is100% completed the remaining duration will be zero; and for an activity that is partially complete you can set a range on the remaining duration. This removes the default option that prorates the uncertainty to the unfinished work, which in many cases needs to be completely reassessed to model the project in light of the actual conditions.
Or, you can remove the distributions from completed tasks and fill in either the actual finish or the actual duration; when you fill in one, Project will calculate the other. For tasks that have started but are not yet complete, you may want to remove the distribution from Duration and put a distribution on Remaining Duration. Or, if you don't have much confidence in your estimate of the percent complete, you might want to leave the distribution on duration as it is. This decision may need to be made task by task.
Last edited: 2017-07-06